Yousaf, Sarwar or Regan: What Awaits Scotland’s Political Future?
Omar Malik
29/04/24
(Outside The Scottish Parliament. Image Credit: Alexey Fedorenko/Shutterstock)
After a disastrous week for the First Minister, Humza Yousaf could be removed from his role shortly - and possibly, an election could be triggered to pave the way for another party to govern Scotland.
It’s certainly a dramatic time for Scottish politics - with Nicola Sturgeon’s husband Peter Murrell being charged in connection with embezzlement, the landmark SNP-Green coalition deal coming to a sudden end, and calls from many opposition MSPs to oust Mr Yousaf following his divisive decisions.
By scrapping the Scottish government’s ambitious 2030 climate targets, which led to the breakdown of the Bute House Agreement, Mr Yousaf has caused immense disruption at Holyrood.
But beyond the soap opera-esque dramatisation of the situation, what does the future truly entail for the Scottish government? These are the three factors most likely to shape the next era of the country’s politics.
1. Mr Yousaf Survives No-Confidence Vote
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Despite the widespread criticism being directed towards Mr Yousaf for his handling of the SNP-Green deal, it’s still possible that he will remain as Scotland’s First Minister after the vote of no-confidence.
Neil McGarvey, a senior teaching fellow in politics at Strathclyde University, believes Mr Yousaf’s political career may not be over: “The SNP have governed as a minority before, so it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that they can emerge through this and govern without the formal agreement of the Greens - instead negotiating with other parties on a case-by-case basis to actually continue to function as a government.”
But the credibility of Mr Yousaf could be unrecoverable, McGarvey says: “He’s obviously less secure than he was last week, and you could interpret the situation as a sign of weakness, in which he’s being forced to pander to a wing of the SNP that might not be as in tandem with his own political instincts.”
2. The Crucial Support Of Ash Regan
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A constant presence in national political discourse, Alba Party MSP Ash Regan may prove to end or save Mr Yousaf’s tenure as First Minister.
It’s a rather ironic situation, given Ms Regan was defeated by Mr Yousaf during 2023’s SNP leadership contest.
Ms Regan later defected to Alba, after distancing herself from the SNP’s trans rights policies, as well as the party’s coalition with the Greens.
As Scottish Labour, the Lib Dems and the Scottish Conservatives will join the Greens in collectively voting against Mr Yousaf during the no-confidence vote, the First Minister may have to rely predominantly on the support of Ms Regan if he is to survive the vote.
This trend of searching for votes will continue within a SNP minority government, McGarvey tells Blether: “If they’re dealing with budgets or dealing with votes of confidence, every vote in a Parliament of 129 members can be pretty significant.”
While Mr Yousaf stated that he will be writing to Alba in the hopes of obtaining support from opposition parties, he has not spoken with Ms Regan in over a year.
As such, the First Minister may not be inclined to listen to Ms Regan’s demands in order to secure her support in the no-confidence vote. Instead, the soured relationship may prove detrimental to Mr Yousaf’s political career.
3. Scottish Labour Takeover
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It’s no surprise to anybody to hear that the Labour Party has experienced a boom in popularity over the past couple of years. From opinion polling to by-election results, this trend has seemingly continued across much of Scotland.
After 17 years of the SNP being in power, perhaps the Scottish public are yearning for a fresh government to take over.
A Scottish election could viably be called in the coming months. Should Mr Yousaf lose the no-confidence vote, and he subsequently resigns, Holyrood would have 28 days to seek out a new First Minister.
Although this may seem like a decent amount of time to allocate a replacement, the SNP is in a precarious, divided position currently. While the party no longer holds its pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament.
If no First Minister is elected following those four weeks, Parliament would immediately be dissolved and an election would be triggered.
Though it’s not possible to accurately predict the outcome of such an election, what is certain is that this won’t be the landslide victory that the SNP have become accustomed to.
The political landscape is ever-changing and, at least currently, particularly unstable. McGarvey reiterates this, while maintaining the unknowingness of the crisis: “The opposition parties having a pile on does make the current government look less stable than it did. But things can change quickly - a week is a long time in politics, and it’s difficult to predict what will emerge after the events of the next week or so.”
A determined Mr Yousaf last week stated his intention to continue as First Minister throughout the next general election, as well as into the 2026 Holyrood elections.